🔗 Share this article Can the Scottish team at last end their New Zealand curse? New Zealand have made multiple modifications to the team that overcame the Irish team International Rugby Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Where: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: this weekend Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement. After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test. A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride." Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off. A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued. Modern Encounters Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent. In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done. As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history. Missing Players Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying. In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations. Squad Depth Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time. And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Coaching Choices The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Past Encounters Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the narrow loss to New Zealand in the previous encounter Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. By the Numbers For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively. Required Performance Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity. Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks. Final Analysis Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance. Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.