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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

But this year's race is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and recent strugglers rising collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still